Evaluating bundles of interventions to prevent peat-fires in Indonesia

The carbon-dense peatlands of Indonesia are a landscape global importance undergoing rapid land-use change. Here, peat drained for agricultural expansion increases the risk large-scale uncontrolled fires. Several solutions to this complex environmental, humanitarian and economic crisis have been proposed, such as forest protection measures support. However, numerous programmes largely failed. Bundles interventions proposed promising strategies in integrated approaches, but what policy combine how align bundles local conditions remains unclear. We evaluate impact two types their combinations, reducing fire occurrence through driving behavioural change: incentives (i.e. rewards that conditional on environmental performance), deterrents (e.g. sanction, soliciting concerns health). look at these 10 villages with varying fire-risk contexts Sumatra, Indonesia. A private-led implementation standardised programme allows us study outcome variability natural experiment design. conduct systematic cross-case comparison identify most effective combinations interventions, using two-step qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) geospatial socio-economic survey data (n = 303). analysed combined influence proximate (interventions, e.g. fear sanction) remote ones (context; extent soil) outcomes. show how, depending level pre-existing context, certain needed succeed. found that, despite being framed rewards-based, people were not responding reward alone. Rather sanctions concern appeared central prevention, raising important equity implications. Our results contribute emerging interest mitigation, rapidly developing literature PES performance.